Individual Risk Scoring and Targeting
Systems that score named individuals for likelihood of offending, reoffending or victimisation, and use that score to direct police attention or intervention towards specific people.
Where place-based prediction forecasts locations, these systems rank people. A score is generated from criminal history, police records and sometimes social or health data, and is used to decide who receives heightened police attention, an intervention, or a place on a target list. The civil liberties profile is different in kind from place-based tools, because the output attaches to an identified individual.
New South Wales Police ran perhaps the clearest documented example. Its Suspect Target Management Plan, from 2000 and in its third iteration from November 2020, used an IT system called Chimera to compute a Crime Severity Index from charges and offending indicators, scoring each offence against the Australian Bureau of Statistics National Offence Index. Chimera used a benchmark score to limit a candidate list; intelligence officers then reviewed the shortlist, could add people from local knowledge, and a senior officer approved selection. Selected people were subjected to increased overt and covert police attention. It was discontinued for children and young people in October 2023 and for adults from December 2023, following investigation by the NSW Law Enforcement Conduct Commission.
Avon and Somerset Police in England developed at least 23 predictive models, with 13 risk models used between 2017 and 2024 covering missing people, antisocial behaviour, and likelihood of committing or suffering crime. An independent review by Eticas of more than 36,000 disclosed model performance scores found low precision, including a burglary prediction model below 10 percent precision for over three years. The force's Offender Management App, designed to hold data on around 300,000 people and described internally as a league table of the area's most dangerous criminals, correctly predicted only one in three actual offenders while flagging one in four non-offenders. The programme is the subject of legal challenge.
Bristol City Council, working with the same force, ran a Think Family Database from 2016 holding records on close to half a million residents, with child sexual exploitation and child criminal exploitation risk models. These were stopped around June 2023 after council staff judged them not fit for operational use, with recent victims of sexual offences scoring below burglary perpetrators. No records of the decision were retained, and reviewers could not retest the models because the source code and model variables could not be found.
Where this is deployed
Full tracker →| Country | Force | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AU | New South Wales Police ForceNew South Wales | Discontinued |
| UK | Avon and Somerset PoliceAvon and Somerset | Operational |
| UK | Bristol City Council with Avon and Somerset PoliceBristol | Discontinued |